Corn, soybean and wheat volume all exceed expectations.
USDA’s latest set of grain export sales data, out Thursday morning and covering the week through November 23, held nothing but bullish results for traders to digest. Corn and wheat futures pushed higher following today’s report, while soybeans struggled to find forward momentum. Volume for all three commodities were above the entire range of analyst estimates.
Corn export sales climbed to 75.9 million bushels – a marketing-year high. That was 35% better than the prior week and 54% above the prior four-week average. Analysts were not expecting this big of a haul, offering trade guesses that ranged between 23.6 million and 49.2 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are trending moderately above last year’s pace, with 300.0 million bushels.
Corn export shipments faded 24% below the prior four-week average, with 19.7 million bushels. Mexico, Colombia, Panama, Taiwan and Jamaica were the top five destinations.
“Shipping volumes did fall slightly from last week’s report, but there is still a lot of good news to be had for 2023/24 corn exports,” according to Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland. “Through the twelfth reporting week, corn export volumes are 40% higher than a year ago.”
Marketing year to date corn shipments to Mexico are 75% higher than the same time a year ago, which has helped to offset slower U.S. corn shipments to China in recent weeks, Holland adds.
“A bigger 2023 corn crop should add some strong momentum to 2023/24 corn shipping paces in the coming months. Today’s report was good for corn export prospects and we will hopefully continue that trend in the coming months,” she says.
Sorghum export sales improved 33% week-over-week to 7.3 million bushels. Increases to China more than offset decreases to unknown destinations. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still noticeably above last year’s pace so far, with 35.7 million bushels.
Soybean export sales were better than expected, with 69.0 million bushels. That was 10% better than the prior four-week average and above the entire range of trade guesses, which came in between 31.2 million and 57.0 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are still moderately below last year’s pace, with 626.7 million bushels.
Soybean export shipments were 24% below the prior four-week average, with 53.2 million bushels. China, Mexico, Vietnam, the Netherlands and South Korea were the top five destinations.
“Soybean shipping volumes are holding fairly steady with year ago paces, which is impressive considering that this year’s crop fell far short of early season expectations,” Holland says. “It’s additionally impressive that shipping paces are still holding firm despite additional supply competition from Brazil’s record-setting crop harvested earlier this year and growing domestic demand for soybeans as more crush plants come online to supply renewable diesel plants.”
Volumes edged slightly lower this week, but Holland thinks markets are bracing for shipping volumes to ramp up again in January and February following early season planting delays in Brazil in recent weeks. A late crop there means more U.S. beans shipped out in early 2024.
“China continues to be the top buyer, but soybean shipments to China have slowed in recent weeks,” she says. “That indicates that Chinese buyers are still confident in the Brazilian crop, despite its challenges with heat stress during germination over the past several weeks. If Brazil’s crop is delayed from shipping once it is harvested in January and February, that will likely be the next best international pricing opportunity U.S. soybean farmers could receive from the markets in the near future.”
Wheat export sales were substantially above the prior four-week average, with 22.9 million bushels. That also exceeded the entire set of trade guesses, which ranged between 7.3 million and 20.2 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are still tracking moderately below last year’s pace, with 290.4 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments climbed 61% above the prior four-week average, with 12.5 million bushels. The Philippines, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan and China were the top five destinations.
“Wheat export volumes continue to struggle,” Holland says. “There aren’t plentiful countryside supplies of wheat this year to keep U.S. prices competitive with plentiful wheat supplies from Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union. China has been buying some U.S. wheat lately, but so far this year they have still bought about 40% less U.S. wheat than the same time last year.”
Holland also points out that Mexico, the Philippines, and Japan have been much more substantial U.S. wheat buyers this year, even though 17% less U.S. wheat has been shipped internationally through the first half of the 2023/24 wheat marketing year compared to the previous years’ time frame.
Click here for more highlights from the latest UDSA export sales report.
Source : Farm Progress